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N Korea Is Preparing to Confront the U.s.a. in 2022

Kim Jong Un will likely conduct more advanced weapons tests this year in his own version of "maximum pressure."

North Korea Is Preparing to Confront the US in 2022  

This photo provided by the North Korean government, shows what it says a test launch of a hypersonic missile in Northward Korea on Jan. v, 2022.

Credit: Korean Central News Bureau/Korea News Service via AP, File

Since Pyongyang rejected the Biden assistants's proposal of diplomatic talks as insufficient to entice Kim Jong United nations back to the negotiating tabular array, North korea seems to have recalibrated its strategy in dealing with the United states of america. While the North'southward end of year report conspicuously condensed the result of its review on foreign policy and replaced Kim'due south New year'southward Day address, information technology is expected that North korea will comport more advanced weapons tests and hold military parades to draw full attention from the U.South. and the international community in the upcoming months. This tin can be seen as North Korea'southward own style of a "maximum force per unit area" strategy, meant to alter the United States' cardinal policy toward the country – what Pyongyang calls the "hostile policy" – before restoring the talks.

North korea'south 2022 Security and Strange Policy

Despite the 10th ceremony of Kim Jong United nations'south ascension to power last year, he did not deliver a New year's day'south Mean solar day accost in 2022. While N Korean state media reported the results of the five-mean solar day plenary coming together of the Workers' Party 8th Central Committee on December 27-31, it is puzzling that Pyongyang did not share details on its foreign policy and strategy for 2022. It but said that the meeting reviewed "principled issues" and relevant strategic directions to cope with the rapidly changing international political situation.

Many experts said the absence of an annunciation on North Korea's foreign policy direction could be seen equally providing "strategic flexibility" or room to maneuver in the uncertain external surroundings. Considering the upcoming events, the Beijing Wintertime Games in February and the S Korean presidential election in March, there are many uncertainties in the region. The possibility of military conflicts in Ukraine and Taiwan cannot exist ruled out this year either. However, those upcoming events will have merely a limited touch on on determining North korea'south arroyo to external affairs. China is likely to turn a blind eye to North korea's further missile tests if it stays silent during the Olympics. In addition, whoever the adjacent South Korean president is, the foundation of Seoul's approach to Pyongyang will not change without Washington'southward approval.

As a event, Pyongyang might take already evaluated the impacts of future external affairs and set its direction on the foreign policy by taking a "frontal breakthrough" and "strong to strong" strategy to deal with the U.Due south. and Republic of korea. Thus, while it is strategically hidden from public reports, North korea has already prepared its military activity plans, such as a series of future missile and possibly fifty-fifty nuclear tests in response to U.S. sanctions, the upcoming Republic of korea-U.Due south. joint military machine exercises, and the potential victory of South Korean master opposition presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol in the election.

North Korea has already tested its missile capabilities half dozen times this month, signaling Pyongyang's clear intention to follow through with Kim's 2021 pledge of strengthening the national war machine capability. Pyongyang will continue carrying out more missile tests in the coming months to demonstrate advancements in its missile technologies. Kim believes that maximum pressure past demonstrating powerful nuclear and missile weapons might be the only way to push the U.Due south. to make concessions.

A Full Speed "Frontal Breakthrough"

Among the deadlocked nuclear talks and the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic, this yr is particularly of import for Kim. He will demand to show his strong leadership on the 110th birth anniversary of Kim Il Sung, the country'due south founder, and the 80th birth ceremony of Kim Jong Il, Kim'due south begetter, which are coming up in April and February, respectively. At the plenary session in Dec, Kim mainly focused on delivering his messages on the development of Democratic people's republic of korea's rural and agricultural sector in a bid to revive his country's crippled economy, which has been worsened past a brutal combination of U.N.-led economic sanctions, farthermost anti-pandemic measures, and natural disasters since early 2020. Kim's hands, however, are tied equally to the economy as there is no long-term plan he can follow to tackle the country'due south devastating food shortages without undercutting his self-reliance arroyo, as ambitious anti-pandemic measures accept completely cut Democratic people's republic of korea off from the world since early on 2020. It is believed that the but long-term solution for the regime to improve its economical situation is reopening the edge with China or resuming nuclear negotiations with the U.South. to lift existing sanctions.

Given this state of affairs, after 2 years of a self-imposed edge lockdown, two cargo trains from North Korea crossed the border from Sinuiju to Dandong on Jan xvi-17 to receive aid and bones necessities from China. Pyongyang might have decided to restart trade with China to recover its economic state of affairs since disinfection facilities have already been installed on the border area. Furthermore, the resumption of help from China could go far possible for Pyongyang to button forward its maximal nuclear strategy this year, every bit it will cushion North korea against the impact of further sanctions. As the hegemonic race between the 2 superpowers – the United states and China – is most likely to intensify in the future, Northward Korea will seek more than shut cooperation with Prc to revive its economic system by resuming merchandise, while carrying out "tit-for-tat" responses to U.South. sanctions.

Even if Kim needs negotiations to find a long-term solution for Due north Korea'due south economic difficulties, he will continue focusing on building his strong nuclear power at to the lowest degree until the global pandemic crunch is over. The electric current situation will prevent North Korean officials from meeting foreign delegations either in the country or abroad. Given the circumstances, therefore, this year is a perfect fourth dimension for the authorities to exert maximum pressure on the U.S. to reach what it wants prior to restoring talks, as the U.S. is now struggling with Russia in Eastern Europe and with China in Eastward Asia.

Showcase of New Advanced Weapons

Starting off with its outset hypersonic missile test of the year on January five, North Korea has conducted 6 rounds of missile tests, including hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles, and short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMS), this month lonely. Among others, the North's second hypersonic missile examination on Jan 11 proved that information technology had successfully developed an advanced version of the hypersonic missile information technology first tested in September of terminal year. Subsequently that, North korea fired its KN series of SRBMs on January 14 and 18 in the wake of U.Due south. sanctions over the missile tests. Pyongyang has angrily criticized the U.S. and Republic of korea for having a "double standard" toward the military activities conducted by the two Koreas. Northward Korea deems the South korea-U.S. joint military drills as proof of "hostile intent" that critically threatens the N'southward security while reiterating that its missile tests are for its "self-defense," not for targeting other countries. Pyongyang justifies its missile tests as office of its policy of responding to forcefulness with strength.

Every bit 2022 continues, North korea will likely prove off even more advanced missile weapons in order to fulfil the pledges made during the 8th Party Congress concluding year. In this context, North Korea volition examination new subversive weapons, and they volition not be the typical SRBMs the North launched this month. Looking dorsum on the missiles Democratic people's republic of korea test-fired before the nuclear talks began in 2018 and the missiles it displayed in a war machine parade last twelvemonth, Northward Korea's advanced series of "Pukkuksong" missiles are expected to be showcased this yr. North Korea will likely examination what information technology has been developing in recent years, including the improved version of its Pukkuksong-2 solid-fuel ballistic missile and the newest Pukkuksong-5 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).

Furthermore, Democratic people's republic of korea's state media recently reported that the country will reconsider Kim'southward self-moratorium on testing nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). With this in mind, Pyongyang will also consider proving its strengthened long-range missile capabilities by showing off its miniaturized and multiple nuclear warheads, if necessary. If all these new missile technologies behave fruit, the U.S. missile defense organisation will be vulnerable to Northward Korea'due south new intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Prospects for Futurity Negotiations

Dorsum in 2019, Kim said he no longer felt bound by his self-moratorium on nuclear and ICBM tests while reiterating that he volition never come back to the negotiating table unless the U.Southward. makes concessions. For Northward Korea, this ways lifting the U.Southward.-led economic sanctions, withdrawing U.Southward. troops from South korea, and suspending the joint South korea-U.S military drills.

In this regard, what the U.S. and Republic of korea should conduct in mind is that information technology is not the right time to activate their backchannels to restore talks with North Korea and seek a détente. Pyongyang is not ready to return negotiations. Even so, U.South. President Joe Biden must reassess his administration's strategic patience policy, as but waiting for Pyongyang to render to diplomatic talks runs the risk of Northward Korea eventually reaching an untouchable level of nuclear capacity. Furthermore, South korea will besides beef upwards its armed forces capability to deal with nuclear threats from North Korea, in particular as the conservative presidential candidate, Yoon, has claimed the right to comport a pre-emptive strike on the North. Accordingly, the state of affairs every bit information technology stands could push the existing arms race on the Korean Peninsula into a unsafe end game.

The Biden assistants has presented an updated nuclear policy that volition reduce the importance of nuclear weapons within Washington's national security strategy. In Nov 2021, Biden and Xi Jinping agreed during their virtual meridian to launch a series of high-level arms control talks. This shows that the Biden presidency is becoming more and more conscious of the value of arms control agreements in restraining global nuclear arms contest. Biden and Kim might exist also interested in the establishment of an arms control framework on the Korean Peninsula – an attractive entry point for future negotiations, which tin be the bones foundation of the long-term denuclearization process on the Korean Peninsula. In the long term, Washington might benefit a lot from such a framework. Multilateral nuclear arms command measures could prove a useful tool to reduce the arms race betwixt regional actors – namely North Korea, Red china, South Korea, and Japan – and control the proliferation of nuclear weapons through the reduction of capabilities and assets in the region.